Indonesia Market Today - 9 November 2020

A. INDONESIA MORNING MARKET REVIEW

Monday (09/11/2020). After the euphoria of the US presidential election and we are returning to real life today where Indonesia officially entered into an economic recession, poverty has increased, * the number of unemployed in Indonesia increased quite significantly in August 2020 by + 35.18% YoY *, foreign debt increased, APBN deficit increased and * the number of people affected by Covid19 at the end of November 2020 has the potential to reach 500,000 people and who died due to Covid19 is estimated to reach 15,650 *.

Anyway, after the JCI strengthened over the past week by + 4.04%, it seems that at the beginning of this week, Monday, for short-term, it is necessary to anticipate profit taking following the drop in the DJIA Index last Friday by -0.24% and the decline in several commodity prices such as: Oil -3.35 %, Nickel -1.49% & CPO -1.12%. On the other hand, rising commodity prices such as: Coal + 0.33%, Timah + 0.70% & Gold + 0.24% have the potential to push up stocks below these commodities.

The number of unemployed has risen rapidly amid an economic recession.

In line with the economic recession, BPS noted that the number of unemployed for the August 2020 period increased rapidly. * The number of unemployed people in Indonesia reaches 9.77 million people or reaches 7.07% * of the entire workforce. Previously, in August 2019 the number of unemployed people in Indonesia was only 7.10 million people or reached 5.23% of the total workforce. * The largest contributor to the increase in unemployment in Indonesia came from urban areas, reaching 8.98% *. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in rural areas is only 4.71%.

B. INDONESIA CORPORATE NEWS

1. PT Garuda Indonesia (GIAA)

Britain`s anti-corruption agency Serious Fraud Office (SFO) is * conducting an investigation into suspected bribery involving Bombardier Inc in the sale of aircraft to the GIAA *. Bombardier is also conducting an internal audit regarding all transactions related to Garuda Indonesia, including the purchase of CRJ1000 type aircraft in 2011 and 2012.

2. PT Prodia Widyahusada (PRDA)

Until the end of quarter 3/2020, the company posted a slight increase in net profit of 1.08% to IDR 122.28 billion compared to the same period in 2019 of IDR 120.97 billion. Meanwhile, until the end of quarter 3/2020, the company posted a net income of Rp 1.2 trillion or a slight decrease of 2.97% yoy from the previous Rp 1.24 trillion.

3. PT Mitrabara Adiperdana (MBAP)

Until the end of quarter 3/2020, the company posted sales of US $ 159.66 million or a decrease of 18.80% yoy compared to the same period in 2019 of US $ 196.63 million. In terms of the marketing area, South Korea is the main export destination for MBAP`s coal, amounting to US $ 105.49 million. Then followed by China with US $ 24.01 million and Malaysia with US $ 30.39 million. Meanwhile, sales to other markets were recorded at US $ 25.61 million. Furthermore, until the end of quarter 3/2020, the company recorded a net profit for the period attributable to owners of the parent company of US $ 25.53 million or decreased by 3.51% yoy compared to the same period in 2019 of US $ 26.46 million. Meanwhile, the company is optimistic that it will produce 4 million tons of coal throughout 2020.

4. PT Garuda Indonesia (GIAA)

Until the end of quarter 3/2020, * the losses suffered by GIAA were even more dire because they reached Rp -16.03 trillion (US $ -1.03 billion) or a super sharp decrease of 941.36% * because in the 3rd quarter of/2019 GIAA still posted a net profit of US $ 122, 42 million. GIAA`s massive loss until the end of Q3/2020 was due to * a decrease in GIAA`s total revenue by -67.85% YoY to US $ 1.13 billion * compared to the same period in 2019 of US $ 3.54 billion. * Comment: AVOID shares GIAA *.

5. PT Garuda Maintenance Facility Aero Asia (GMFI)

Until the end of quarter 3/2020, * the company posted a net loss of USD 160.6 million (equivalent to IDR 2.499 trillion) or a sharp decrease of 1808.51% * because in the same period in 2019 GMFI managed to record a net profit of USD9.4 million. Meanwhile, until the 3rd quarter of 2020 the company posted GMFI operating revenues of USD191.04 million, or a decrease of 48.23% compared to the same period in 2019 of USD369.67 million. * Comment: AVOID of GMFI shares *

6. PT Adhi Karya (ADHI)

The company is aiming for new contracts of at least Rp. 18.2 trillion to be included in the books of 2020. The details of the Binjai-Langsa Toll Road, there is still potential for approximately the remainder of what we have already worked on, around Rp.4.4 trillion. The company is also aiming for a new contract from the Solo-Jogja-Kulonprogo Toll Road project which is expected to be achieved in November 2020, with a value of around IDR 7.8 trillion. Furthermore, the company will also get contracts from 6 segments of the inner city toll road (Jakarta Inner Toll Road) with a value of IDR 1 trillion-IDR 2 trillion and from regular projects for the remaining 2 months of this year, around IDR 4 trillion.

7. PT Total Bangun Persada (TOTL)

The company posted a new contract value of around IDR 597 billion as of September 2020 or has exceeded the minimum target of IDR 500 billion installed by TOTL for the year.

C. MARKET STATISTICS
DJIA -66.78 -0.24% 28323
*NASDAQ +4.30 +0.04% 11895*
*GOLD +4.70 +0.23% 1951.50*
OIL -1.30 -3.35% 37.49
*COAL (Nov/Newcastle) +0.20 +0.33% 61.65*
NICKEL -232.5 -1.49% 15340
*TIN +127.5 +0.70% 18362.5*
CPO (Dec`) -38 -1.12% 3350
*EIDO +0.12 +0.59% 20.44*
*TLK 19.52 (2774) vs 2830 (TLKM)*
US 10yr +0.0444 +5.67% 0.820
*INDO 10yr -0.053 -0.84% 6.439*
*INDO CDS (5 yrs) -2.539 -2.952% 83.449*
*IDR (Spot) 14,210*

*IDX Range : 5,298 - 5,384*
*USD/IDR Range: 14,150 - 14,280*

D. STOCK WATCHLIST

BBRI, SMGR, GGRM, ACES, TLKM, JPFA, BBCA, ASII, BMRI, SMRA.

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