USD : Technical Outlook against SEA Currency

(Thu, 19 Nov 2020).

SINGAPORE DOLLAR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The Singapore Dollar closed at its strongest against the US Dollar since June 2018 as USD/SGD set new 2020 lows. This follows positive Covid-19 vaccine developments further pressuring the greenback against emerging market currencies. USD/SGD now faces the 2018 inflection zone between 1.3311 and 1.3339. A daily close under the November 9th lower shadow at 1.3410 could open the door to extending losses. Otherwise, a push above the short-term falling trendline from late October exposes 1.3527.

INDONESIAN RUPIAH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The Indonesian Rupiah is hovering above the 13935-14012 support zone against the US Dollar. Immediate resistance seems to have been established at 14227. Recent price action does follow a bearish ‘Death Cross’ that formed back in October. That is when the short-term 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) crossed under the medium-term 50-day one. If USD/IDR breaks lower, it exposes the current 2020 low at 13560. Otherwise, a breach of resistance places the focus on 14342 towards 14525.

MALAYSIAN RINGGIT TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The Malaysian Ringgit has broken under a rectangle continuation pattern against the US Dollar. That has opened the door for USD/MYR to extend the dominant downtrend since the middle of March. Prices paused gains on the 4.0850 inflection point. A close below exposes the current 2020 low at 4.05. However, positive RSI divergence does warn that downside momentum is fading which can precede a turn higher. In such a case, keep a close eye on a short-term falling trendline from late October.

PHILIPPINE PESO TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The Philippine Peso is struggling to extend gains against the US Dollar. This follows USD/PHP breaking below the 48.36 – 48.28 support zone that has defined its consolidation since late August. Key support sits below at 48.07, clearing this price exposes the October 2016 low towards the 38.2% Fibonacci extension at 47.35. Keep a close eye on the 50-day SMA which is appearing to maintain the focus to the downside. Here positive RSI divergence does persist as well, opening the door to a turn higher.

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