EURO : Fresh New High
(Fri, 4 Dec 2020). Euro has rallied nearly 5% off the November lows against the US Dollar with a breakout in EUR/USD stretching to fresh yearly highs into the December open. The breakout is a manifestation of the 2020 opening-range breakout registered back in July and while the outlook remains weighted to the topside, waning sentiment warns of possible exhaustion in the weeks ahead. These are the updated targets and invalidation levels that matter on the EUR/USD weekly price chart. Review my latest Weekly Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of this Loonie technical setup and more.
Notes: In my last Euro Weekly Price Outlook we noted that EUR/USD had, “reversed off confluence downtrend resistance with the decline now approaching lateral support near the 1.16-handle.” Price registered a low at 1.1602 before marking an outside-weekly reversal with the subsequent rally breaking to multi-year highs into the December open.
The breakout is now testing initial resistance at the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the 2018 decline at 1.2148 with momentum still marking weekly divergence with the September highs. A topside breach / close above this level keeps the focus on subsequent objectives at channel / parallel resistance (red- currently near 1.2220s) backed by the 88.6% retracement at 1.23378 and the 2018 high-week close at 1.2409- both levels of interest for possible topside exhaustion IF reached. Initial weekly support now rests with the 2018 yearly open / 61.8% extension at 1.2005 with broader bullish invalidation now raised to 1.1823/35.
Bottom line: The Euro breakout has already extended into initial resistance objectives and while the immediate rally may be vulnerable here near-term, the outlook remains weighted to the topside while above 1.1835. From at trading standpoint, a good zone to reduce long-exposure / raise protective stops – losses should be limited to 1.2005 IF price is heading higher on this stretch. Be on the lookout for possible exhaustion into the upper parallels heading deeper into the month.
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