Indonesia Market Today - 13 January 2021

A. INDONESIA MORNING MARKET REVIEW

Wednesday (13/01/2021). After the Nickel price fell for 2 days by US $ -887.5 (-5.34%), on Tuesday the Nickel price managed to strengthen by + 2.73% and when combined with the strengthening of the prices of several other commodities such as: Tin + 1.21% (for the previous 2 days the price of Tin also fell by -2.01%), Oil + 1.21%, Gold + 0.46% and Coal + 6.35% and the strengthening of the DJIA by + 0.19% were the catalysts driving the JCI this Wednesday.

On the other hand, investors in the stock market need to anticipate the signals given by the Bond Market as early as possible following the continued increase in the yield on 10-year US bonds which currently has reached 1.1380% vs FFR of 0.25%.

Warren Buffett is waiting for a correction when global stocks touch their highest

Global stock markets soared to their highest levels in 13 years this week. This is an indicator that the stock price is overpriced and ready for correction. When calculating the combined stock market capitalization with global GDP, the stock index is currently 121% more expensive at the end of last week. Bloomberg data show that the stock market is currently the highest since 2007. Buffett`s indicators sound the alarm. "The global stock mkt limit has now reached 120% of global GDP, and thus the same level as before the crash in 2008,".

B. INDONESIA CORPORATE NEWS

1. PT Sarana Menara Nusantara (TOWR)

The company is aiming for an increase in revenue of 8% in 2021. This target is relatively lower than the revised upward revenue target for 2020 of 14% - 15% on an annual basis. If the target of increasing revenue of 14% - 15% is achieved in 2020 to Rp7.35 trillion - Rp7.41 trillion, TOWR is the same as targeting Rp.7.93 trillion - Rp8 trillion in 2021. To realize this target, TOWR will spend around IDR 3.25 trillion in capex in 2021. About 40% of the capex will be used for non-tower business development such as tower fiberization and connectivity.

2. PT Bayan Resources (BYAN)

The company has set a production target in the range of 32 to 34 million tons throughout 2021 or slightly higher than the estimated 2020 production realization of around 30 million tons. More specifically, the guide to the production volume of the Perkasa Inakakerta mine is projected to contribute 1-1.2 million tons, Teguh Sinarabadi or Firman Ketaun Perkasa contributes 3-3.4 million tons, the Tabang Produski concession is 26.8-27.8 million tons, and Mining Wahana Baratama of 1.2-1.6 million tons. In addition, BYAN is targeting the volume of overburden removal (OB) to also increase to in the range of 120-140 million bcm, especially due to the commencement of Tiwa Abadi mining in the Tabang Project, which is offset by lower OB at Wahana Baratama and Teguh Sinarabadi or Firman Ketaun Perkasa mines. . Meanwhile, the average cash cost in 2021 is estimated to be in the range of US $ 27-29 per ton with an average selling price in the range of US $ 38-US $ 40 per ton. Until the end of December 2020, the company managed to secure a coal sales contract commitment for 2021 of 27.2 million tons, or 80% of the contract target for 2021, with an average calorie of 4,579 GAR Kcal / kg.

3. PT Sumber Alfaria Trijaya (AMRT)

The company allocated a capex of Rp 2.7 trillion-Rp 3 trillion throughout 2021. Capex will be used, among others, to add 600-800 new Alfamart outlets. In addition, the company will develop B2B online sales in the form of Alfacart and B2C in the form of Alfagift. The company is also finalizing the concept of selling delivery messages via the WhatsApp application.

4. PT Indika Energy (INDY)

In 2021, the initial target for INDY coal production is 31.4 million tonnes. This production came from PT Kideco Jaya Agung amounting to 30 million tons, while PT Multi Tambangjaya Utama (MUTU) amounted to 1.4 million tons. On the other hand, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) set a reference coal price (HBA) in January 2021 at US $ 75.84 per ton. This figure is up 27.14% from the position in December 2020 which was US $ 59.65 per ton.

C. MARKET STATISTICS

*DJIA +60 +0.19% 31069*
*NASDAQ +36.6 +0.28% 13072*
*GOLD +8.6 +0.46% 1855*
*OIL +1.21 +2.32% 53.27*
*COAL (Feb`21/Newcastle) +5.40 +6.35% 90.50!!*
*NICKEL +470 +2.73% 17672!!*
*TIN +250 +1.21% 20975*
CPO (Mar`21) -95 -2.50% 3702:bangbang:
*EIDO +0.24 +0.98% 24.62*
*TLK 24.81 (3506) vs 3600 (TLKM)*
US 10yr +0.0060 +0.53% 1.1380:bangbang:
INDO 10yr +0.0551 +0.86% 6.4021:bangbang:
INDO CDS (5 yrs) +2.937 +4.209% 72.729
IDR (Spot) 14,130

*IDX Range : 6,346 - 6,450*
*USD/IDR Range: 14,070 - 14,210*

D. STOCK WATCHLIST

BSDE, BBRI, SMBR, ERAA, AGII, SMRA, BMRI, ANTM, INCO, PWON.

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