Indonesia Market Today - 18 January 2021

A. INDONESIA MORNING MARKET REVIEW

Selling pressure on the Indonesia Stock Exchange is likely to continue at the beginning of this week due to the drop in the DJIA Index last Friday by -0.57% and EIDO by -1.69%. It doesn`t stop there, falling prices for several commodities such as: Oil -2.86%, Gold -1.28%, CPO -2.83%, Nickel -1.51% and Coal -0.06% have the potential to be a contributor to the JCI drop on Monday amid the increasingly ferocious attack of Covid19, 11 days (January 4 to January 15) the number of people infected with Covid19 per day increases by 110% even though according to epidiomologists there has not been any optimization of tracing, testing, and treatment (3T) so that cases per day can actually reach 50,000 cases of Covid19.

On the other hand it is interesting to observe the sharp fall (3 consecutive days of ARB) 3 pharmaceutical stocks namely: KAEF, INAF & IRRA because although it has dropped sharply for 3 days but the relative valuation of the 3 pharmaceutical stocks: KAEF (PER 632.7x), INAF (PER -695.6x) & IRRA (PER 397.4x) are still SUPER DUPER EXPENSIVE, aka VERY EXPENSIVE, so don`t be surprised if the 3 pharmaceutical stocks have the potential to fall sharply back in the future.

Likewise, it is interesting to observe the sharp increase in shares of Bank AGRO (Book 2 with PBV 7.19x) & BRIS (book 3 with PBV 6.73 ×) making the relative valuation of the two stocks to be SUPER DUPER EXPENSIVE aka VERY EXPENSIVE ONCE when compared to 7 shares of book bank 4 (Mean PBV 1.79x; lowest PBV BNGA 0.63x & highest PBV BBCA 4.79x). Only irrational investors will buy AGRO & BRIS shares (even after merger the valuation still EXPENSIVE) at this time. We just have to wait when the two stocks will fall sharply.

Covid-19 is crazy, PPKM is considered ineffective in pressing cases

In the last few days, the Covid-19 case in Indonesia has set several records, even on Saturday (16/01/2021) the number of cases has reached 14,224, which is the highest during this pandemic. The implementation of Community Activity Restrictions (PPKM) is considered ineffective in suppressing cases. Griffith University epidemiologist Dicky Budiman said * the lowest estimate of daily cases in Indonesia has risen to 50,000 per day, and previously 40,000 per day *. With the highest case detection rate at 14,000, there is still a gap of weakness in case detection. * Dicky warned that this could be dangerous because it would cause a surge in morbidity and mortality *.

B. INDONESIA CORPORATE NEWS

1. PT Aneka Tambang (ANTM)

The company was sentenced to pay a loss of Rp. 817.4 billion or the equivalent of 1.1 tons of gold * to Budi Said. This is because Budi Said, who bought 7 tons of gold, only received 5.9 tons. The remainder, 1.1 tonnes of gold, was not awarded. The verdict was read out in a hearing at the Surabaya District Court yesterday (15/1). The panel of judges chaired by Martin Ginting granted Budi Said`s claim as the buyer of 7,071 kilograms (kg) or 7 tons of Antam`s gold at Antam`s Surabaya I Antam`s Precious Metal Gold Boutique (BELM).

2. PT Wijaya Karya (WIKA)

The company estimates that the net profit in 2020 will reach IDR208 billion and in 2021 it will be worth IDR1.05 trillion. The company said that the company`s new contract value was Rp23 trillion in 2020, most of which was still contributed by infrastructure and building projects. The realization was above the target set by the company of IDR 21.3 trillion last year. Meanwhile, for 2021, the company targets the acquisition of new contracts to nearly double to Rp40.12 trillion.

3. PT Total Bangun Persada (TOTL)

The company targets revenue growth to be Rp 2 trillion this year, compared to last year`s estimate of Rp 1 trillion. Net profit is also estimated to increase to IDR 75 billion, compared to the 2020 estimate of IDR 50 billion. The estimated growth in financial performance will be realized with the achievement of new contracts this year reaching Rp 2 trillion, compared to the achievement in 2020 worth Rp 856 billion. All of these targets are supported by expectations of an improvement in the infrastructure sector throughout 2021.

4. PT Lautan Luas (LTLS)

The company has budgeted a capital expenditure (capex) of Rp 200 billion - Rp 300 billion in 2021. The capex funds are planned to be used to finance the company`s business development, especially in the manufacturing business segment.

C. MARKET STATISTICS

DJIA -177.2 -0.57% 30814
NASDAQ -114.1 -0.87% 12998
GOLD -23.70 -1.28% 1827.70
OIL -1.53 -2.86% 53.04
COAL (Feb`21/Newcastle) -0.05 -0.06% 89.75
NICKEL -277.5 -1.51% 18042.5
*TIN +47.5 +0.23% 21122.5*
CPO (Mar`21) -97 -2.83% 3323
EIDO -0.42 -1 69% 24.49
TLK 24.91 (3492) vs 3480 (TLKM)
US 10yr -0.0320 -2.83% 1.0970
INDO 10yr -0.0081 -0.13% 6.3893
INDO CDS (5 yrs) +1.516 +2.079% 74.428
IDR (Spot) 14,020

*IDX Range : 6,331 - 6,425*
*USD/IDR Range: 13,940 - 14,080*

D. STOCK WATCHLIST

WIKA, AGII, JSMR, WSKT, BJTM, TINS, HRUM, ADHI, MDKA, PTPP.

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