BITCOIN : ETH Rally

(Tue, 26 Jan 2021). The recent cryptocurrency rally is on pause for now with Bitcoin and a majority of alt-coins fading off their recent all-time highs. A period of consolidation can be seen as a positive for the market after recent breath-taking moves and once the market re-balances, fresh highs look the path of least resistance for now. In the short-term however, Bitcoin is looking slightly negative with the daily chart showing a ‘gravestone doji’ formed on Monday. This may continue the recent sell-off, especially with the market capped by the 20-day simple moving average, although a zone of support between $28,000 and $28,800 is likely to hold and stem further losses. The CCI indicator is also showing the market as oversold for the first time since early-September.

BITCOIN DAILY PRICE CHART (AUGUST 2020 – JANUARY 26, 2021)

Retail trader data show 82.53% of Bitcoin traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 4.73 to 1. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Bitcoin prices may continue to fall.Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Bitcoin-bearish contrarian trading bias.

Ethereum continues to out-perform Bitcoin and the second-largest coin by market capitalization retains a neutral to positive bias outlook. A recent cluster of higher highs and higher lows remains in place with the alt-coin finding support from the 20-day simple moving average recently and printing a fresh all-time yesterday. Trend support also remains in place. Initial support between $1,235 and $1,295.

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