EURO : Risk Ahead of ECB Minutes

(Thu, 18 Feb 2021). Looking at the economic calendar docket, the European trading session is fairly quiet A key event risk ahead will be the ECB’s account of the January monetary policy announcement. Euro traders are eyeing the central bank’s outlook for the regional bloc’s economy, including risks. There has been a notable slow start to vaccinations within member states as the region attempts to keep more infectious strains of Covid-19 at bay.

That said, ECB President Christine Lagarde did mention before that the risks to the outlook remain mostly unchanged compared to where they were in December. So if investors are more anxious than the central bank is perceived, the Euro may benefit here. But, EUR/USD may focus on other key themes such as the fundamental forces driving longer-term government bond yields higher, giving the Greenback an advantage.

EURO TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

EUR/USD is looking at key rising support from June, highlighted on the daily chart below. This is as prices are approaching the 1.1932 – 1.2011 inflection zone again. A bearish ‘Death Cross’ is hinting that further losses may be ahead after the 50-day Simple Moving Average crossed above the 20-day one. A push above these lines would expose the 1.2273 – 1.2350 resistance zone, just under the April 2018 high.

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