USD : Technical Outlook against SEA Currency

(Thu, 18 Feb 2021).

SINGAPORE DOLLAR TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The Singapore Dollar is struggling to advance against the US Dollar after USD/SGD broke under short-term rising support from earlier this year. Prices paused on the 1.3218 support point, with the pair generally consolidating since late December. The 100-day Simple Moving Average is nearing, piercing the key 1.3370 – 1.3404 resistance zone. It may reinstate the focus to the downside. Resuming the dominant downtrend entails a fall through the 1.3158 January low towards bottoms seen in 2018.

PHILIPPINE PESO TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The US Dollar has been able to make some aggressive moves against the Philippine Peso as of late. USD/PHP experienced its largest 2-day rally since June, climbing almost 1 percent over Tuesday and Wednesday. Philippine Central Bank Governor Benjamin Diokno downplayed hawkish expectations recently, saying that it is too soon to consider a rate hike despite some signs of accelerating inflation.

As a result of the price action, USD/PHP is aiming to hold above the 100-day SMA as the pair tests the 48.2870 – 48.3600 inflection zone. Given a confirmatory hold above this zone, that could open the door to revisiting the 48.6800 – 48.8230 resistance range. Otherwise, a turn lower has key support eyed at 47.8670 followed by 47.6780.

THAI BAHT TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The Thai Baht continues to consolidate against the US Dollar, though a falling zone of resistance from November seems to be guiding the pair cautiously lower. A key support area to breach under would be the 29.7200 – 29.7780 range as it has its beginnings from the end of 2019 and 2020 – see chart below. Climbing above falling resistance on the other hand exposes key levels to watch for at 30.1370 and then at 30.2350. Beyond that sits the 30.3560 – 30.4440 zone.

INDONESIAN RUPIAH TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

The Indonesian Rupiah is pressuring a key falling zone of resistance from September against the US Dollar. This follows USD/IDR pausing losses on the lower boundary of the 13870 – 14012 support zone. Generally speaking, the pair has been in a consolidative state since November. A break above falling resistance would expose the December high at 14280. Otherwise, a turn lower may place the focus on the 2020 low at 13560.

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