Indonesia Market Today - 16 March 2021

A. INDONESIA MORNING MARKET REVIEW

(Tue, 16 Mar 2021).

Global Market Highlight

DJIA increased by +0.53% on Monday (15/03) followed by S&P 500 (+0.63%) and Nasdaq (+1.05%). The technology sector was supported by a fall in interest rates while the Fed is expected to leave rates and the pace of its USD120 billion monthly bond-buying program unchanged. But investors will be closely watching for any clues the central bank is willing to act if rates rise at a disorderly pace. Moreover, the market will look forward to several data releases today, such as: 1) US Retail Sales; 2) US Industrial Production; 3) Eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment Index.

Domestic Update

• BPS released Indonesia`s trade surplus which narrowed to USD2.01 billion in February 2021, below market consensus of USD2.21 billion. This figure is the tenth consecutive trade balance surplus driven by increased exports amid improving global demand. Exports rose 8.56% YoY mainly due to higher non-oil and gas export sales. Imports also rose 14.86% YoY as non-oil and gas purchases increased.

• Furthermore, there was an addition of 1,555 new Covid-19 cases in Jakarta yesterday.

IHSG Updates

JCI fell by -0.53% to 6,324.26 on Monday (15/03) followed by net foreign sell reaching IDR159.34 billion. JCI fell as the previous global indices closing varied. Furthermore, it seems that investors have gone profit taking as JCI rose significantly on the previous closing. On the other hand, agriculture sectors still strengthened as CPO price kept on recording an all time high. Meanwhile, the Rupiah exchange rate was weakening at IDR14,402. We estimate JCI will move in the range of 6,160-6,400 while waiting for the BI interest rate decision.

Support: 6,160, 6,090
Resistance: 6,400, 6,505

B. INDONESIA CORPORATE NEWS

1. ADRO IJ

Posted revenue of IDR35.49 trillion in FY20 or decreased -26.67% YoY (vs IDR48.40 trillion FY19). The decline was due to an 18% YoY drop in average selling price (ASP) and a 9% YoY drop in sales volume. While cost of revenue also decreased from IDR2.49 trillion to IDR1.95 trillion YoY. ADRO posted net profit of IDR2.05 trillion in FY20 or decreased -63.64% YoY (vs IDR5.65 trillion FY19).

We hope that this year ADRO can improve their performance despite the ending of contract from coal mines in South Borneo. Currently ADRO is trading at 19.08x/0.75x PE/PBV.

2. ANTM IJ

Posted revenue of IDR27.37 trillion in FY20 or decreased by -16.33% YoY (vs IDR32.71 trillion FY19). While ANTM cost of goods sold managed to decrease to IDR28.27 trillion. Thus, ANTM posted net profit of IDR1.14 trillion in FY20 or Increased 492.90% YoY (vs IDR193.85 million FY19).

ANTM managed to boost its bottom line by suppressing several costs such as COGS, General and Administrative as well as Marketing expenses. There is also a gain from subsidiaries from a loss previously. ANTM is currently trading at 48.92x/2.95x PE/PBV.

3. WEGE IJ

Posted revenue of IDR2.81 trillion in FY20 or decreased by -38.47% YoY (vs IDR4.56 trillion FY19). The cost of revenue also decreased by -36.83% YoY to IDR2.59 trillion YoY. WEGE posted net profit of IDR153.28 Million in FY20 or decreased -66.06% YoY (vs IDR451.65 million FY19). Management stated that the decline was due to the Covid-19 pandemic which impacted on all sectors.

Realization FY20 fell on the average of construction companies. However, we believe in the company`s performance FY21E Construction will improve as infrastructure tenders begin to recover. WEGE is trading at 14.36x/1.02x PE/PBV.

Corporate Action

General Meeting of Shareholders : BBSI

C. INDONESIA STOCK WATCHLIST

1. BMRI - Buy on Weakness (6,650)

Buy on Weakness: 6,500-6,625
Target Price: 7,000, 7,200
Stoploss: below 6,375

2. PGAS - Buy on Weakness (1,410)

Buy on Weakness: 1,380-1,410
Target Price: 1,545, 1,660
Stoploss: below 1,370

3. PTBA - Buy on Weakness (2,740)

Buy on Weakness: 2,670-2,740
Target Price: 3,000, 3,200
Stoploss: below 2,580

4. ACES - Sell on Strength (1,615)

Sell on Strength: 1,620-1,655

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