OIL : Technical Forecast

(Wed, 17 Mar 2021). Crude oil has edged slightly lower for three consecutive trading sessions as the $66.00-handle shapes up into a key zone of technical resistance. This area is roughly underpinned by the April 2019 and January 2020 swing highs. Oil price action seems to have found a bit of buoyancy around last month’s high, however, as the commodity aims to maintain altitude and its broader bullish trend.

Oil prices thus show potential to continue marching higher alongside the positively sloped 20-day simple moving average. Surmounting the $66.25-price level might tee up crude oil for another push to fresh yearly highs. Although, if downward pressure lingers and pushes crude oil below the $63.50-price level, the commodity could embark on a deeper pullback.

This might bring into focus the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level of its latest bullish leg. The 50-day simple moving average may serve as an additional layer of technical support for crude oil. To that end, upward momentum behind crude oil price action has shown signs of slowing. Bearish divergence highlighted by the MACD indicator and relative strength index speaks to this.

Crude oil price action could also face headwinds from a possible Bollinger Band squeeze. This is because Bollinger Band width contraction reduces the statistical probability of upside potential. Nevertheless, fundamental event risk posed by the release of crude oil inventory data, in addition to updated FOMC economic projections, might dictate the near-term direction of oil price action.

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