Indonesia Market Today - 24 March 2021

A. INDONESIA MORNING MARKET REVIEW

(Wed, 24 Mar 2021).

Global Market Highlight

DJIA slipped by -0.94% on Tuesday (23/03) followed by S&P 500 (-0.76%) and Nasdaq (-1.12%).Wall Street tumbled as fresh lockdowns in Europe muddied the outlook for global economic growth. Europe is facing a third wave of Covid-19 that has forced Germany, France, and the Netherlands to battle the virus with a fresh lockdown into Easter that will likely set global growth back. The risk of slower global growth led to a 6% drop in oil prices as travel-related demand may not return as fast as expected. Moreover, the market will look forward to several data releases today, such as: 1) US Markit Manufacturing PMI Flash; 2) US Durable Goods Orders; 3) UK Core Inflation Rate.

Domestic Update

• The finance minister projects domestic economic growth in the 1Q21 to be in the range of -1% to -0.1% YoY. The economic projection indicates a recovery from the 4Q20 period which was -2.19% YoY. In addition, the Minister of Finance projects that the economy in 2Q21 will grow 7% YoY. This projection increased from the realization of economic growth in 2Q20 which was -5.32% YoY.

• The Minister of Finance stated that a sales tax discount on luxury goods (PPnBM) for cars of 1,500 to 2,500 cc could take effect in April 2021. In addition, PPnbm will only apply to cars with a TKDN of at least 70%, Less than that, the PPnBM rate applies normally of 10%-30% depending on the type of car 2,500cc.

• Furthermore, there was an addition of 815 new Covid-19 cases in Jakarta yesterday.

IHSG Updates

JCI dropped by -0.77% to 6,252.71 on Tuesday (23/03) followed by net foreign sell reaching IDR21.83 billion. JCI continued to drop despite the rise of optimism on the global market that has led to previously increased. All sectors tumbled with only the agriculture sector managed to increase due to the rebound on CPO price. Meanwhile, the Rupiah exchange rate was strengthening at IDR14,396. We estimate JCI will move in the range of 6,200-6,300 while waiting for Markit Manufacturing PMI data release.

Support: 6,167, 6,090
Resistance: 6,360, 6,400

B. INDONESIA CORPORATE NEWS

1. INDF IJ

Posted revenue of IDR81.73 trillion in FY20 or Increased 7% YoY (vs IDR76.59 trillion in FY19). Despite the rise on COGS by 2% to IDR54.98 trillion in FY20, INDF still posted a net profit of IDR12.89 trillion in FY20 which increased 31% YoY (vs IDR9.83 trillion in FY19).

The INDF’s positive growth was supported by an increase in almost all segments, especially from the ICBP and the plantation sector in line with the increase in CPO prices. We believe that this year INDF will still record positive growth, especially with the support from Pinehill. Currently INDF is trading at 9.08x/1.38x PE/PBV.

2. HMSP IJ

Posted revenue of IDR92.42 trillion in FY20 or decreased 12.85% YoY (vs IDR106.05 trillion in FY19). While Cost of revenue also decreased 7.8% to IDR73.6 trillion in FY20. Thus, HMSP posted a net profit of IDR8.58 trillion in FY20 which decreased 37.46% YoY (vs IDR13.72 trillion in FY19).

Pandemic conditions had weighed on HMSP`s sales volume by almost -10% YoY. We estimate that volume will still be prone to pressure this year, especially after the stipulation of an average 17% increase in excise tax in FY21E. Thus, management will focus on selling the SKT segment this year as an effort to restore financial performance. HMSP is currently trading at 19.32x/5.48x PE/PBV.

3. ICBP IJ

Posted revenue of IDR46.6 trillion in FY20 or increased 10.3% YoY. However, COGS also increased by 5.5% YoY to IDR29.42 trillion in FY20. ICBP posted a net profit of IDR6.6 trillion in FY20 which increased 30.7% YoY.

The growth on net profit was supported by the top line growth and Pinehill`s significant contribution to ICBP`s profit margin. ICBP recorded a satisfactory performance with earnings achievement above the MNCS forecast and consensus at the level of 118% / 119%. ICBP is trading at 16.29x/3.65x PE/PBV.

Corporate Action

Rights Issue cum date: BBYB (IDR100/share)

General Meeting of Shareholders : FASW

C. INDONESIA STOCK WATCHLIST

1. INCO - Buy on Weakness (4,500)

Buy on Weakness: 4,330-4,460
Target Price: 4,820, 5,400
Stoploss: below 4,230

2. ASII - Buy on Weakness (5,575)

Buy on Weakness: 5,425-5,575
Target Price: 5,800, 6,300
Stoploss: below 5,400

3. HRUM - Buy on Weakness (5,250)

Buy on Weakness: 5,100-5,225
Target Price: 6,000, 6,500
Stoploss: below 4,980

4. MAPI - Sell on Strength (790)

Sell on Strength: 800-830

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