Indonesia Market Today - 5 April 2021

A. INDONESIA MORNING MARKET REVIEW

(MON, 5 APRIL 2021)

Global Market Highlight

DJIA rose by +0.52% on Thursday (01/04) followed by the S&P 500 (+1.18%) and Nasdaq (+1.76%). Wall Street closed higher as tech stocks led the gains as the 10-year Treasury yield fell to around 1.68%. The rise in stocks came after Biden`s plans on roads, bridges, green energy, and water system upgrades which reached USD2 trillion in spending over eight years and would raise the corporate tax rate to 28% to fund it. Moreover, the market will look forward to several data releases today, such as: 1) US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI; 2) US Factory Orders; 3) US ISM New York Index.

Domestic Update

• The IHS Markit Indonesia Manufacturing PMI rose to a record high of 53.2 in March 2021 from 50.9 in February. This was the fifth straight month of growth in factory activity, amid sharp accelerations in rates of growth in output and new orders. Also, firms expanded their buying level, which they did at a solid pace that was the joint-third fastest in the survey history. Finally, sentiment hit a 50-month high, boosted by hopes that the pandemic will end as well as a higher projection of sales and marketing efforts.

BPS released Indonesia`s annual inflation which eased slightly to 1.37% in March of 2021, the lowest since August last year and compared to forecasts of 1.4%. The annual core inflation rate declined to 1.21%, the lowest since the series began in 2008 and compared to forecasts of 1.44%. On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged up 0.08% in March, the least in 5 months.

• Furthermore, there was an addition of 736 new Covid-19 cases in Jakarta yesterday.

IHSG Updates

JCI rose by +0.43% to 6,011.46 on Thursday (01/04) followed by net foreign sell reaching IDR1.16 trillion. JCI finally rebounded after a previous deep plunge, backed by a strong rally from the agri sector as CPO price hiked up. Furthermore, trade and miscellaneous industry sectors still strengthened along with most of the other sectors, but the consumer and property sector still weakened. Meanwhile, the Rupiah exchange rate was flat at Rp14,525. We estimate JCI will move in the range of 5,892-6,230 while waiting for Foreign Exchange Reserve data release.

Support: 5,892, 5,735
Resistance: 6,230, 6,390

B. INDONESIA CORPORATE NEWS

1. SIDO IJ

Will distribute the remaining FY20 cash dividend of IDR18.9/share, after previously distributing an interim dividend of IDR12.5/share in Nov-2020. Thus, the total dividend per share distributed to shareholders from the financial year FY20 was IDR31.4/share or reached IDR934.02 billion. The Cum and Ex dividend dates in the regular market and the negotiation market are on 09 and 12 April 2021, respectively.

SIDO`s dividend payout ratio reached 101% of FY20 net profit with total dividend yield offered quite attractive at the level of 4.02%. The strong balance sheet position and business prospects will provide attractive returns to investors. Currently SIDO is trading at 25.05x/7.26x PE/PBV.

2. BSDE IJ

Posted revenue of IDR6.18 trillion in FY20, which decreased 12.71% YoY (vs IDR7.08 trillion in FY19). However, COGS also decreased from IDR2.02 trillion in FY19 to IDR1.93 trillion in FY20. BSDE posted a net profit of IDR281.7 billion in FY20 which decreased 89% YoY (vs IDR2.79 trillion in FY19).

Covid-19 had an impact on BSDE`s performance in 1Q20-3Q20. However, as the demand for property improves, it will improve performance in FY21E. BSDE is currently trading at 84.17x/0.79x PE/PBV.

3. WSBP IJ

Posted revenue of IDR2.21 trillion in FY20, which decreased 70% YoY (vs IDR7.47 trillion in FY19). However, cost of revenue also decreased from IDR5.9 trillion in FY19 to IDR5.5 trillion in FY20. WSBP posted a net loss of IDR4.86 trillion in FY20 (vs net profit IDR803.84 billion in FY19).

The decline in WSBP`s performance was due to the lack of construction project tenders in FY20, so that WSBP suffered a net loss. WSBP is trading at 4.83x PBV.

Corporate Action

Cum Dividend: BBRI (IDR98.91/share)

General Meeting of Shareholders : PTBA

C. INDONESIA STOCK WATCHLIST

1. MEDC - Buy on Weakness (575)

Buy on Weakness: 540-575
Target Price: 610, 700
Stoploss: below 480

2. BMRI - Buy on Weakness (6,200)

Buy on Weakness: 6,125-6,200
Target Price: 6,500, 7,200
Stoploss: below 6,100

3. CPIN - Sell on Strength (6,975)

Sell on Strength: 7,000-7,175

4. ASII - Sell on Strength (5,350)

Sell on Strength: 5,350-5,500

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